‘Big Jump’ of New Listings; Tariff Threats Impact Home Sales
More Canadians were willing to list their homes in January, but buyers were less willing to jump into the real estate market.
The latest data from the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) shows the number of newly listed homes increased 11% in January compared to December. CREA’s Senior Economist Shaun Cathcart said it’s an unusual time of year for Canadians to be putting their homes on the market.
“If you look past the COVID era of wild swings, that’s the biggest jump ever going back to the 1980s,” he said during CREA’s Housing Market Report (watch the full report below).
Canadian Home Sales Decrease
What makes the above data more interesting is that home sales in January didn’t keep up. In fact, they dropped 3.3% compared to December, which dropped the sales-to-new-listings ratio below 50% for the first time since 2023.
With sales down amid a surge in new supply, the national sales-to-new listings ratio was 49.3%. The long-term average for the national sales-to-new listings ratio is 55%, with readings between 45% and 65% generally consistent with balanced housing market conditions.
Why did this happen? Cathcart further explained, “There’s no doubt what the cause of sales dropping off in the fourth week of January was,” he said, referencing the threat of wide sweeping tariffs on Canada from U.S. President Donald Trump, creating economic uncertainty for many Canadians. “It’s no wonder prospective home buyers would pull back.”
The slow start to 2025 wasn’t enough for CREA to balk from its previous forecast, with revised 2025 home sales expected to be 8.6% higher than 2024 and a national average price that’s expected to climb 4.7% compared to 2024.
Of course, the CREA forecast doesn’t take into consideration any external factors until they’re policy.
“While we continue to anticipate a more active spring for the housing sector, the threat of a trade war with our largest trading partner is a major dark cloud on the horizon,” said James Mabey, CREA Chair and a REALTOR® in Edmonton, Alberta.
Canadian Home Prices Stay Stagnant Nationally
The MLS® Home Price Index (HPI)—an exclusive tool for REALTORS® to gauge a neighbourhood’s home price levels and trends most accurately—was little changed (-0.08%) month-over-month and was also virtually unchanged (+0.07%) on a year-over-year basis (the slightest of increases, but worthy of mentioning considering tis the first year-over-year increase since last March).
The non-seasonally adjusted national average home price was $670,064 in January 2025, up 1.1% from January 2024. Breaking it down regionally, however, tells a different story. The following data is all year-over-year comparisons based on actual (not seasonally adjusted) average prices.
As you can see, the Prairies, Quebec and everything east of Ontario are experiencing noteworthy price jumps, especially New Brunswick. The more expensive markets in Ontario and British Columbia are keeping national price levels flat mainly due to their already high price points.
“It’s an Uno reverse card from 10 or 15 years ago,” Cathcart points out in CREA’s Housing Market Report, calling back to a time when national price growth was driven by Toronto and Vancouver.
“While uncertainty about the economy and jobs will no doubt keep some prospective buyers on the sidelines, a softer pricing environment alongside lower interest rates will be an opportunity for others,” Mabey added. “If you’re looking to buy or sell a property in 2025, contact a REALTOR® in your area as the first step.”